Read for India's new population projections, a lesson from Awadhi history, how you may be fleecing artisans and craftsmen, an excellent read on development finance investments, and early results from a survey of India's micro enterprises that remain optimistic.
More people, lots more people: New data from Government of India shows that India’s population is expected to grow by 25% (from 2011) to 1.52 billion by 2036.
India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country around 2031. A Lancet study has said this will happen by 2100. The UN believes it'll happen a lot faster, by 2022.
So you can be sure that it will eventually happen.
Not all states will grow the same way. As much as 54% of the growth will come from 5 states - UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh. UP and Bihar lead the pack at growth rates of 30% and 42% respectively, mainly on account of their high fertility rates.
If UP and Bihar were a country, they’d be the third most populated country in the world by 2036.
The southern states have had replacement fertility rates for some time now and are expected to grow at about 9%. They face a different issue – that of a higher share of senior citizens in their populations. I've discussed earlier how the world population is set to decline by 2100.
Learn from the Nawab: Leading labour economists Radhicka Kapoor and Nomaan Majid argue that an effective way to boost demand (and re-start the economy) would be to ensure a decent minimum wage for those who are the bottom of the distribution — the casual labour. This, in turn, will improve wages for others engaged in low-paid work, including regular informal workers. They identify agriculture, construction and MGNREGA (Government of India's public works programme) workers as the places to start.
While on MGNREGA and the need for state-funded employment programmes, I came across what may be one of the earliest examples of a public works programme anywhere in the world.
In 1784, following an unprecedented famine in the Awadh province, Nawab Asaf-ud-Daulah was faced with an urgent need to provide relief. He commissioned the construction of a massive building, asking people to work as labour and gave them food as wages.
While most people joined in, the aristocracy wouldn’t deign to do physical labour. The Nawab invited them to come after dark and damage bits of the day’s construction. They were given their share of food for this ‘work’, and the construction also went on for a while – ensuring food for as long as people needed it. The building stands even today, and you know it as Lucknow’s Bara Imambara.
More broadly on jobs, see this on how salaried jobs in July 2020 have dropped 22% from last year. Note that while these are not lost easily, once lost they are far more difficult to get back.
A Microscope to the Microenterprises: Early results from an ongoing survey of over 1400 Indian microenterprises are out, with lots of data on sentiment, impact and strategies for recovery. The survey finds that while a majority of these remained closed during the lockdown, 81% (more women than men) are confident of a recovery post COVID-19. The ‘how’ of this recovery isn’t very clear – 46% of the survey respondents said they do not have any coping strategy, and 57% do not have any cash reserves.
40% of the surveyed micro-enterprises said they took a loan during the lockdown, but only 14% took one from a formal source of credit.
This one made me a little sad: Have you ever wondered whether craft sellers at Dilli Haat give you a once-over and accordingly ask a price? Stanford professor Arun Ranganathan’s research shows that this is almost exactly right. Artisans do assess you, determine whether you’re a “discerning” buyer or not, and quote you a price. But that doesn’t mean they ask for more if you look rich. In fact, because the artisans feel a deep connection to their product, they’d prefer to sell it to you – even at the cost of a financial gain - if you look like someone who would value it and give it pride of place in your home.
Even people like you and me who otherwise have a higher ability to pay, will end up paying a lower price – if we come across as appreciative and discerning.
Foreigners who ooh and aah for long enough are much more likely to get a discount than to get fleeced.
The paper suggest argues that merely increasing tourism to artisanal towns will not increase the craftspersons’ income, as is often believed. We need a more sophisticated model - one that goes beyond pure financial interests – to identify ways to increase the income of India’s many craftsmen and cratfswomen.
For more on the sector, know that GoI has scrapped the Handloom Board, and street performers are going online to prepare for a post-Covid world.
Don’t say Trickle Down. Say Transformational: I highly recommend this note by CDC’s Paddy Carter on development finance investment in the private sector, and its implications. It brilliantly captures (1) the idea of transformational investment – what does it mean when we say our investments transform the economy, (2) the sectors and sub-sectors in which such transformation is most easy to see and articulate, and (3) the challenges of explaining these transformations to critics – especially now that “trickle down economics” is such a bad word.
It is 10 pages long, so it is already shorter than most such explanations. Paddy also writes brilliantly – clear, lucid prose without needless jargon – and is generally a delight to read.
Finally, as the Supreme Court of India declares itself above criticism and if that makes you grumpy, here’s a picture of India’s first three female fighter pilots - Bhawana Kanth, Avani Chaturvedi and Mohana Singh – to cheer you up and bring the Happy back to this Independence Day weekend.
