New Government of India Report on Climate Change: Government of India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences has come out with its first comprehensive report on how global warming is changing climate in India. The report predicts a rise in extreme rainfall events, increased frequency of cyclones, a rise of average temperatures by 4.40 C, and more droughts in India over the course of this century. Policy recommendations include the need to make vulnerability assessment central to long-term planning for developing adaptation and mitigation, a pressing need for research and strategies that are directed towards improving resilience in Indian cities, and the need for equity and social justice to build climate resilience among the most vulnerable. A news piece with some of the key results is here.
Have food supply chains recovered?: See this twitter thread by Matt Lowe about his work on food supply chains in India – arguing that they have largely recovered. The study found that while aggregate food volumes initially fell 60% during the lockdown, they had mostly recovered by the end of May. The initial volume shock was larger in states with more coronavirus cases, but all states are recovering. Wholesale prices have also recovered and are now 10% lower than before the lockdown. See also this response by Surbhi Kesar (Azim Premji University) arguing that the fall in prices shows farmer distress, and that the impact on agriculture is likely to be more long-term (due to disruption in labour supply for the current season, disruption in inputs (fertilizers, seeds)) and will be known only with a lag. She uses results from a phone survey conducted across major Indian states to assess the impact of the lockdown on livelihoods, and people’s knowledge of and access to relief schemes.
Nobody won, but who lost more?: Read this piece to see how disproportionately more women and Dalits lost jobs as a result of the lockdown since April. This is addition to a low base effect – i.e. fewer women and Dalits were employed to begin with. The piece quotes Ashwini Deshpande’s analysis who found that 29% of men lost employment while for the women the figure was 39%, and rural women were hit the hardest (43% fall in those reporting employment), followed by scheduled castes (36%).
Urban poor rapidly losing savings: Underlining the precarity of urban poverty in India, this piece finds that about 139 million Indians or 30% of the urban population will run out of savings by the end of this month (June 2020). Additional government support to farmers, and a quicker reopening of the economy in rural areas have enabled greater resilience in India’s rural poor. The urban poor also spend a larger share of their incomes on essentials and had lower savings to begin with.
The test of testing: With news coming in of India’s first mobile lab for Covid-19 testing, read this very good, in-depth analytical piece on how India needs to do ten times as many tests as it is doing. Testing capabilities need to be ramped up by a factor of 10 if we want any meaningful numbers to know the true prevalence of the diseases or to devise strategies to open up the economy.
Lots here on how testing is done in India, what are the SOPs, what the supply chain looks like and its main choke points, the challenges of central-state coordination, and the role of the private sector. Also know that the MoHFW’s National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has responded to an RTI query saying they do not have country-wide data on Covid-19 testing capacity.
Reforms aren’t always effective, easy or straightforward: An excellent long read here on how agricultural reforms announced by the government may not translate very successfully on ground in the middle of a recession. The piece highlights the need for more short-term and immediate assistance and shows the limitations of long-term reform measures that require more supporting changes. I recommend you read this to just understand the sheer depth and scale of issues in the sector and how just reforms aren’t always as straightforward as we may think.
Don’t throw your TV out and eat that Gobhi Manchurian: If you’re wondering whether to stop buying Chinese goods so India can become ‘Aatmanirbhar’ – please listen to this podcast between leading economics journalist Puja Mehra and ICRIER head Rajat Kathuria. The short answer is no, that won’t help. Read also this on how banning trade with China will impact India and its poor. If you’re still determined to do something, you could stop eating Chinese food – but remember that (1) Chinese food in India is less Chinese than Chicken Tikka Masala in London is Indian, and (2) the restaurant serving Chinese food you will boycott is probably run by Indians, employs Indians, and is part of Indian supply chains – so the only thing this may be good for is your waistline.
It could be worse: Finally, if you think you’re having a bad week, I recommend you stop moaning and read this FT piece on how others have it worse. Written by someone “blessed with an inheritance as well as a venture-capitalist husband”, the piece outlines the writer’s many challenges of living in South Kensington when even Harrods has shut down. Her struggle to find the right work wardrobe is resolved only when she can move from her Chanel tweed blazers to Olivia von Halle silk pyjamas “in colours guaranteed to make the dullest Zoom meeting come alive”. She is grateful for the police officers in Hyde Park who turn on the lights of their patrol car to “amuse her children”, and her Chelsea gym that delivers protein shakes and artisanal coffees to her doorstep so she can escape the horrors of “coronacarbs”.
What? Rich people have problems too.