IMF feeling less upbeat: The IMF has reversed its optimism on India and has predicted a 4.5% contraction in the Indian economy in FY 21. This is part of its most recent World Economic Outlook update published earlier this week. Global growth is projected to contract by 4.9% in 2020. Factors driving this are weaker economic data from the first half of the year, and more stringent and protracted lockdowns than the Fund had anticipated in April. Given the need for social distancing, there are also concerns about how quickly activity will rebound even in the absence of a further worsening of the health situation. For large parts of the world infections have not yet peaked. The IMF is clear that “higher-than-usual” uncertainty is still a key feature in this forecast. Read also this very good blog by Gita Gopinath on the uneven and uncertain recovery that lies ahead – lots of charts and generally a very comprehensive piece.
I can’t kill you if I can’t find you: A study by IGC here captures the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on criminal activity. Using the number of registered First Information Reports (FIRs) data from Bihar, the study finds that the lockdown decreased aggregate crime by 44%. It argues that even when there were fewer police officers engaged in preventing crimes (redeployed to enforce lockdowns), not as many violent crimes occurred because it was just harder to find your victim. It recognises that this decline is not for all crimes. Crimes against public health workers actually went up by a whopping 143%, and FIRs don’t capture domestic violence which has also gone up by all accounts. So what’s the policy implication? Less stringent lockdowns (because those increase economic hardships that can exacerbate violent crimes), and the need for re-allocation of policing resources to control crimes that go up during lockdowns – such as domestic violence. I’d have also liked to see the impact of the lockdown on the propensity of Bihar police to even register an FIR – because one way the police controls crime is by simply not measuring it.
We are sliding back: See this for the impact of Covid-19 on reproductive health services such as maternal health, family planning, and abortion services. There are real worries now that gains made by India to address preventable maternal, newborn, and child mortality and morbidity in the last two decades will be reversed by COVID-19. See also the recent brief by the Global Financing Facility (GFF) that suggests that large service disruptions in India have the potential to leave more than 4 million women without access to facility-based deliveries. As a result of disruptions in essential services, child mortality in India could increase by 40% and maternal mortality by 52% over the next year. See chart below on demand and supply factors that have driven this trend.
For more health-related data, see a new policy brief here with an assessment of the impact of India’s national lockdown on the utilization of inpatient services under PMJAY (Government of India's scheme for free health coverage of the poor) based on an analysis of claims data.
Urgently needed - JOBS: See a new Working Paper here by the brilliant Radhicka Kapoor on the impact of Covid-19 on India’s labour markets. She shows that a little over 2% of India’s total labour force is in regular wage jobs with written contracts and social security benefits, and emphasises an urgent need to generate productive employment in the economy through the expansion of employment guarantee programmes, an industrial policy focused on construction and labour intensive manufacturing, and wage support to enterprises to prevent further job losses. The papers shows that (1) a disproportionately large share of India’s workforce is likely to face job and income losses, and (2) that we can expect a widening disparity in the labour market. If you’re looking to learn more on this issue, this is arguably one of the most up-to-date and evidence-backed pieces you will find.
New Study on Urban Governance in India: Research and advocacy organisation PRAJA has recently released the key findings from its Urban Governance Reforms Study conducted across 21 states. Looking in great depth at issues of urban governance including those of accountability, fiscal decentralisation, and citizens’ grievance redressal mechanisms, this report is an excellent resource. The detailed report is here and a crisp blog summarising key findings is here.
Are the rich doing enough?: The good folks at the Centre for Global Development (CGDev) have published their updated Commitment to Development Index – a measure and ranking of 40 countries in how they support development in other countries. The index is interesting because it goes beyond aid budgets and includes the many, many ways in which rich country policies impact the poor ones - development finance, investment, migration, trade, environment, security, and technology. The index adjusts for individual country levels – so the richest countries are also expected to do more.
Here is a blog that captures the key results – Sweden emerges on top, with France, Norway, UK and Germany completing the top 5. A more detailed brief is here and makes for a very interesting read. You can be sceptical of the rankings but look beyond that. There’s lots of interesting insight into a range of questions including - which countries emit most greenhouse gases, who accepts the highest share of female migrants and female students, who is the leader on global health, who does most for peacekeeping across the world and who sells the highest shares of their arms to poor, undemocratic, and militaristic countries. There is also a separate section on middle income countries, including India and China. India emerges as one of the countries with the worst score on trade, with the highest tariffs against poorer countries.
Who is more transparent?: From the Global Campaign for Aid Transparency, see also the 2020 Aid Transparency Index here. When both specialised aid ministries/ agencies of bilateral donors were compared with their and foreign/ trade/ defence ministries (that delivered aid), the specialised aid agencies generally performed better.
How much is your life worth?: Finally, a podcast recommendation here by Tim Harford on how much will the government pay to save your life. It is short (27 minutes) and very interesting. As economies worldwide grapple with the question of opening up vs staying locked down, this issue is really at the heart of the decisions they are making.