Covid-19 will push 12 million Indians into extreme poverty in 2020: The World Bank estimates that Covid-19 is set to push 49 million into extreme poverty (less than $1.9 a day) globally. The pandemic is likely to cause the first increase in global poverty since 1998 , when the Asian Financial Crisis hit. Sub-Saharan Africa will face the worst of this – with 23 million people pushed into extreme poverty. A quarter of this global surge in extreme poverty will come from one country – India.
India mein aapka swaagat hai: Hoping to fuel recovery through an investment surge, and eager to ride on the growing anti-China sentiment (or just the realisation that not all supply chain eggs should be in one basket) India is moving to “lure” firms out of China. Identifying electrical, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, electronics, heavy engineering, solar equipment, food processing, chemicals and textiles as priority sectors, land twice the size of Luxembourg has reportedly been identified for the purpose.
Bye Bye Labour Laws?: A move to relax/ remove labour laws by Indian states - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh - can also be viewed in this context. Reasonably drawing criticism from many quarters, this has raised fears of labour exploitation and further worsening of working conditions for the majority of India’s workforce. I’d understand this issue with the background that only about 10% of India’s workers are protected by its labour laws (formal workers).
A green recovery is not just good for the green but also for the recovery: A survey of 200 leading economists and economic officials has revealed what we've all wanted to hear - green policies are not only good for the environment, but also for the economy - and its persistent recovery. Okay.
This piece here outlines the details of the survey and presents five areas for policy action that stand out: (1) clean physical infrastructure investment (2) Building efficiency through renovations and retrofits, (3) investment in education and training, (4) natural capital investment, and (5) clean R&D spending. Read also this piece here on a green recovery for India, advocating 3 focus areas: electricity, transport and the urban economy; and a World Resources Institute (WRI) blog here on 5 ways in which India can achieve a sustainable recovery.
China won’t tell but looks like we know: As calls for debt relief to poor countries increase, the role of China as a lender has come into the spotlight. Folks at the Centre for Global Development (CGDev) estimate that China is the largest official creditor to developing countries – outstripping the Paris Club, the World Bank and the IMF. In the absence of official Chinese data, the researchers admit that this may be a second best estimate and argue that such independent estimates will continue to play an important role in informing global discussions until China decides to say more.
Aadhar and India’s Exclusion Problem: Read here a good piece on Aadhar and the trade-off between reducing corruption and higher exclusion: i.e. while the Aadhar exercise may have lowered corruption it also led to many people being excluded from the social safety net.
Over 200 million of beneficiaries (25%) of the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Package (PMGKP) did not receive the additional grain disbursements in April - a key food security component promised under the Covid-19 relief package.
Many other surveys also indicate exclusions in a range of 25-30% – which translate into very large absolute numbers.
Public healthcare continues to lead delivery, whether or not you like it: Signalling a worsening of the health crisis, this piece outlines how the private healthcare providers have declared themselves unfit, unable or unwilling to take on the fight. Follow that up with a really good, data-rich piece here highlighting that less of a third of India’s population relies on publicly funded healthcare or government hospitals.
These numbers won't surprise you if you're familiar with the capacity and quality issues of India’s government hospitals that coexist with a large number of private healthcare providers. The latter vary hugely in quality with many not complying with any regulation and providing dubious healthcare. (Question: Why do people still go there if the care provided is poor? Hint: information asymmetry, externalities, market failures).
“Patna’s Super Babu”: These are not my words (though I am inclined to agree) but from a piece here profiling the Bihar health secretary and his work in the ongoing crisis. In an unusual move for a serving bureaucrat, IAS officer Sanjay Kumar recently took to Twitter to talk about the “complete withdrawal of private health sector in the state”. If you’re on Twitter do follow him – his twitter profile is a great example of government providing real time data and evidence based engagement, and leveraging technology to communicate with citizens. I also like that he looks generally cheerful and approachable.
Update: Sanjay Kumar is no longer the Bihar health secretary. He has been transferred to the tourism department. Why? Your guess is as good as mine.